| Model fair line (Indianapolis Colts) | +3.2 |
| Market line (book) | +4.5 |
| Edge (points) | +1.28 |
| Model win prob - Dallas Cowboys | 35.6% |
| Market implied - Indianapolis Colts | 34.2% |
| Power rating - Dallas Cowboys | 1476.3 |
| Power rating - Indianapolis Colts | 1339.0 |
El Pluga Sports is an independent betting-value scanner. Every day our Elo power model - adjusted for the current injury report - publishes a fair line for each game and compares it with the sportsbook market. When the two differ by 2+ points the game is flagged MISPRICED; when lines have already moved sharply toward one side it is flagged SHARP MOVE.
An edge is a statistical estimate, not a promise. Lines move, injuries change, and models are wrong often enough that no single game should be treated as certain. Bet only what you can afford to lose - see our responsible gambling page.